Complexity Science Seminar Series - Abstracts
Title:
Optimal distribution of vaccine/antivirals and the "least spread line" in a
stratified population
Presenter:
Edward Goldstein, Harvard School of Public Health
Date and Time: Monday, September 22nd, 2008 4:00-5:00pm
Abstract:
In this talk we'll consider the problem of optimal distribution of vaccine/antivirals in a stratified population, where optimality is characterized by minimizing the reproductive number of an emerging epidemic. Two results are presented in this direction. First, if we have incidence data in an emerging epidemic, we can, under certain assumptions, identify the stratum in the population, which is optimal for vaccine/antivirals distribution, even if we have no contact data for interaction between the strata. If we do have such contact data, and information about the efficacy of a vaccine/antiviral, we can explicitly find the "least spread line", which is a target for an optimal vaccination/antiviral distribution program (such as preliminary vaccination for seasonal flu). The concept is illustrated using the affluent/non-affluent strata of the US population. This is joint work with Jacco Wallinga and Marc Lipsitch.
Seminar Location: The seminars are held at:
Virginia Tech, Corporate Research Center
1880 Pratt Drive, Building XV
Seminar Room, First Floor
Directions: Map (PDF)
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