Seminars @ NDSSL

Title: Modeling Environmental Mediation of Infection Transmission to Assess Intervention Effects

Presenter: James (Jim) Koopman, MD MPH
University of Michigan, Department of Epidemiology

Date and Time: Monday, March 12, 2007, 3:00-4:00 PM

Abstract:

At the Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), microbiologists, social scientists, and modelers are developing new approaches to analyze transmission systems by following infectious agents through the environment. Infectious agent is modeled on hands, surfaces, and in the air as it transits between susceptible and infected individuals. Experiments are conducted to provide parameter values for these models. Analyses of these models at parameter values relevant to influenza have shown that human movement patterns can change the most effective interventions from interruption of airborne transmission to interruption of hand-fomite transmission. An even stronger determinant, however, is the effect of dose accumulation time. Standard dose-response experiments are all conducted with a single dose exposure. Real world exposures are accumulations of dosage over time. Our models of the initial battle between influenza viruses and immune particles on mucosal surfaces show that model parameters change cumulative dose relationships enough to change the dominant mode of transmission. Unfortunately data is lacking to resolve this issue. Hypothesized differences in immune-pathogen dynamics between children and adults could mean that modes of transmission differ in importance between children and adults. While waiting for experiments to resolve this issue, CAMRA models can still be used to assess the robustness of inferences about intervention effects from models that don't specify different routes of transmission.

Seminar Location: The seminars are held at:
    Virginia Tech, Corporate Research Center
    1880 Pratt Drive, Building XV
    Seminar Room 2018, Second Floor
    Directions: Map (PDF)

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