Seminars @ NDSSL

Title: Modeling The Spread Of Infectious Disease Using Genetic Information Within A Marked Branching Process

Presenter: Dr. Scotland C. Leman Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute

Date and Time: Monday, January 28th, 2008 (3:30pm)

Abstract:

Much of traditional epidemiological modeling relies on ecological proximity information for modeling the spread of infectious disease (Marshall 1991). In certain settings this may be the only data available, however using these data alone may yield misleading results. In hospital settings, spatial data can yield especially poor results, since patients and doctors are usually free to migrate through the hospital, introducing the pathogen to new locations.Subsequently, tracing the origins of such a disease becomes increasingly difficult. We will introduce a model where we consider the frequency of genetic factors, with regard to temporal structure. If one was capable of ascertaining the exact whereabouts of the host (infected individual) and all individuals the host has contacted, then this information could be used to determine the origins of the disease. Unfortunately, in most circumstances, such a complicated network of information is not available. However, the pathogen itself can be very useful in the determination of infectious transmission. The genetic makeup of the pathogen yields a strong signature as to whether the disease is an independent arrival of the disease, or rather if it has been contracted by another individual already present in the hospital. By tracking specific haplotypes of the pathogen, as they arise within the hospital (in individuals), we will be able to identify,to a much greater degree, the actual internal transmission rate of disease. We will explicitly demonstrate the utility of such genetic information by comparing inferences to those without genetic information.

Seminar Location: The seminars are held at:
    Virginia Tech, Corporate Research Center
    1880 Pratt Drive, Building XV
    Seminar Room, First Floor
    Directions: Map (PDF)

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